A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates want to engage with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. They writes two articles that aim for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass identity markers, duties, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the opposing positions."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
