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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple script. It often acts as a form of mea culpa. Our apologies we misjudged your squad in our pre-campaign projections.

On paper, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the most dramatic turnaround receives the award. However, it fuels an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're actually honoring superior coaching or simply the greatest upset.

But this year's competition is profoundly different. The group of candidates is remarkably strong. It has been the year of turnarounds. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning conference winners falling away and longtime strugglers rising collectively. Under an ordinary year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in this wild and entertaining season, he's up against several other exceptional coaches.

Here is how the ideal ballot should be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by quarterbacks. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. Given a proper ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his rare ability. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent dominance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become more decisive, far less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system rather than improvising. It is an offense built solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady dose of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that frees wide receiver receivers consistently. The QB has taken advantage. And when openings weren't available, he's been capable to create big plays from nothing.

The coach came to Chicago with a specific offensive philosophy. Almost each bet – overhauling the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a timing-based passer – has paid off. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the building with the kind of expectations Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme genius but the kind of culture builder that can breathe new life into an franchise.

In a typical year, he would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet this isn't a typical year!

The area where Johnson's case comes slightly unstuck is on defense. The Bears currently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. He is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several wins worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term winning. However Johnson comes up just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's another rookie leader who has orchestrated a dramatic resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall football of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has excelled at the leadership stuff, which was not a guarantee after his initial press conference appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching mix of youth and experience, Coen trusted first-timers. Starting with the head coach himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That type of approach is exciting in theory, but frequently fails in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is learning a new job on the fly. Yet Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements into sync.

Following an initial hot start, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the rails. A midseason setback caused the Jags stumbling again. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. He didn't. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive plays and started hunting reliable ones. Coen refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the tiniest deduction in the standings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year case has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a different signal-caller and pairing him with an new play-caller might have derailed the season in October. Instead, it made it. By the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has regressed since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, putting him just one spot ahead of peers.

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